By Anand Chundi: Alvin Kamara
I’m a big fan of Kamara. The man single-handedly won a lot of fantasy leagues last season. He’s an electrifying player with the ball in his hands and is incredibly efficient.
He has also been one of the more durable running backs during his career to date having only missed 3 games in four seasons at running back, one of if not the most physically demanding position.
That being said, Kamara is the RB I don’t believe can return value on his ADP this upcoming season for a few reasons. First, Drew Brees made a living via dump-offs and short passes to Kamara. So many times, Brees would check down to Kamara and watch him break off long gains:
This cannot be said for either Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston. Kamara has caught 81 or more passes for his entire career, and it’s hard to imagine him getting to that milestone this year with either QB.
Secondly, I believe this offense takes a step back as a whole. While Brees was on his last legs for the past two seasons, he was insanely efficient and knew how to run an offense.
Hill is a gadget player whose best skill is running the ball, and Winston has a turnover problem that needs to be fixed. You also have Latavius Murray on the team who will get his touches each game.
All of this makes it hard to see Kamara paying off his price tag. This is not to say he will not be an excellent fantasy player, he will surely be a top-10 running back more than likely. It’s just that his situation in the Saints offense is not desirable as a fantasy owner.
Bottom Line:
Kamara is currently listed as RB5 with an ADP of around 17 in Dynasty leagues. Some players I rather take a chance on in that range are Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott and Austin Ekeler.
Brandon Mintz: Cam Akers
In the fantasy football community, we often fall victim to recency bias and small sample sizes. There is one RB that fits into both of these categories, making me wary of him at his current ADP. That would be Cam Akers of the Los Angeles Rams.
Akers is currently going as the RB #6 with an overall ADP of 19. While Akers certainly showed tons of promise at the end of the 2020 season, there are a few reasons to be concerned when investing in this player with such significant draft capital.
First, we have an extremely small sample size of Akers being the lead back. He commanded a snap percentage of over 60% in just four regular-season games last season.
However, in the postseason he reached 72% and 96%, taking over the reins as the top running back on the team. This is certainly a good sign for Akers as he reached his highest usage when the games mattered the most, but we must remember that we only have a three-game sample size of Akers taking over 70% of offensive snaps. Also, a large reason for this higher snap percentage was the absence of top backup Darrell Henderson, who missed out due to a high-ankle sprain.
Another thing to think about when looking at the fantasy prospects of Cam Akers is the addition of new quarterback Matthew Stafford. Akers started getting his most usage once head coach Sean McVay had grown tired of previous quarterback Jared Goff. Bringing in a veteran gunslinger like Stafford signifies that they will be a pass-heavy offense, putting into question if Akers will be able to replicate his end-of-season usage.
Lastly is the element of recency bias that comes into play when evaluating Akers moving forward. We are more likely to value someone whose success came more recently like Akers, as opposed to someone who thrived in the early season like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who you can get as the RB #13 with an ADP of 38.
Bottom Line:
I believe that Akers has the ability to finish as an RB1 in 2021, but seeing him go higher than more proven youngsters like Antonio Gibson, and consistent performers like Ezekiel Elliot is something I do not agree with.
David Owen: Antonio Gibson
Gibson has experienced a meteoric dynasty rise. One year ago, his ADP stood at RB #52, when he was a 3rd round pick by Washington after only carrying the ball 33 times in his college career at Memphis. Since then, he finished his rookie season as a top-15 RB, showing off his impressive blend of vision between the tackles and receiving ability. His ADP has since skyrocketed to RB #8.
But being drafted above Davante Adams, who led the NFL in all-purpose TDs and Derrick Henry, who broke the 2,000 yard rushing marker last season is a bit too rich for my taste. In fact, I would draft Henry, Najee Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Zeke Elliott all above Gibson in dynasty drafts. The lowest of those, Elliott, is being drafted 17 spots below Gibson, despite finishing as an RB1 in each of his 5 years in the league.
To complicate matters, 1/4 of his fantasy points were accrued against the lowly Cowboys’ defense, and he is still dealing with a nagging toe injury.
Bottom Line:
Does Gibson have the potential to finish as a top-10 RB? Definitely. But drafting a player at their ceiling in terms of range of outcomes is not a winning strategy. After all, we don’t get fantasy points for swagger, unfortunately…
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