Which Halfbacks are Most Undervalued at their Current ADPs?

Next up in our series of undervalued dynasty assets, the running backs! The lifeblood of any competitive roster, RBs can be the most volatile assets due to injuries and their subsequent shorter shelf life than other positions. With that said, having depth at RB is more essential than ever, given how frequently injuries strike their ranks, especially entering into the NFL’s first-ever 17 game season. Here are 3 halfbacks that are poised to outperform their current ADPs in 2021 and beyond: 

Anand Chundi: D’Andre Swift

After a good but not great rookie year, many people including myself are counting on Swift to be a fantasy football star next season. Things certainly didn’t start out great for the Georgia product, as he dropped a last-second, game-winning score in Week 1 against the Bears.

Through Week 6, Detroit’s backfield belonged to Adrian Peterson. The veteran played 41 percent of the snaps and handled more than 14 touches per game — a number skewed by his 22 carries in Week 3. Contrast that with Swift, who averaged close to 10 handles per contest in that stretch. By season’s end, the turntables had turned. Swift was on-field 40 percent of the time and handled nearly 15 touches per game. Peterson had dropped to 26 percent and eight touches per contest.

This season, there are a multitude of things going in Swift’s favor, namely, he’ll be partnered with Jared Goff, who should rely heavily on him for check-downs to move the ball. During Goff’s last few seasons with the LA Rams, he relied heavily on short passes which should benefit Swift immensely.

Swift can also do it all. He rushed for 4.6 yards per carry and eight touchdowns in just 13 games as a rookie while catching 80.7% of his targets for 357 yards and two touchdowns. If not for the hesitancy of the coaching staff to go with him sooner, his numbers would have been even more impressive.

In the modern era of NFL offenses, Swift fits in perfectly with the desire to use running backs in the passing game. The changes at the quarterback position and on the coaching staff should both propel Swift into a bigger role in 2021. Given the ADPs of similar halfbacks, D’Andre Swift will be an excellent RB to own regardless of format in 2021.

David Owen: Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott’s consensus dynasty ranking is RB15, or in other words, 43rd overall, which is one spot above D.J. Moore. This is absolute madness, and makes for the perfect case study for recency bias. The worst year of his career was his last, although he still finished as the RB11.

Besides 2020 and in 2017 when he missed 6 games due to suspension (yet still managed to finish as a top-10 RB, his lowest finish was RB5. He was the RB3 in the 5 games last year before Dak got hurt, so he clearly has plenty left in the tank. For the price of a mid-RB 2, that is a bargain. 

Yes, he has racked up 1,413 carries in his 6 years in the league, but is somehow still only 25. For the record, that is the same age as backs like Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb, who are thought of as earlier in their prime. It is fair to assume that Elliot has plenty of tread on his tires as he has been extremely durable, and has shown zero signs of slowing down thus far. With a Hall of Fame type career arc thus far, he could easily have 3 more Pro Bowl years left in the tank.

We just saw Elliott’s floor, where his starting QB and all 3 of Dallas’ best offensive lineman got hurt early in the year, and he still finished on the RB 1/2 borderline. You should take that in the 5th round every day of the week. Until the carries finally catch up to him, and his production falls off a cliff, a la Todd Gurley, you can bank on RB1 production.

Unlike many backs, his durability also ensures you can count on him in your lineup every week, and makes it less likely that the Todd-Gurley-scenario happens anytime soon. Of all the halfbacks with middle-round ADPs, Elliott’s is the most… appetizing.

Brandon Mintz: Austin Ekeler

It is not often that you can get someone as the RB17 and an ADP of 51 that possesses top-five upside at their position. Yet, that is the exact situation we face when looking at the fantasy prospects of 26-year-old Austin Ekeler.

Ekeler is coming off an injury-riddled season where he missed 7 weeks with a hamstring injury. However, he seemed to find a good connection with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, averaging 17.18 fantasy points per game in his final 6 games of the 2020 season.

Ekeler’s last full season came back in 2019 when he was accompanied by fellow Pro Bowl running back Melvin Gordon. Even with Gordon beside him, Ekeler still managed to finish the season as the RB4 in PPR formats, showing the immense value of his presence in the passing game.

Although running backs have the shortest shelf life of any fantasy asset, there are a couple of factors that make me feel good about Ekeler’s future. 

First, Ekeler is in just year two of his 4-year $24.5M deal, showing the Chargers commitment to having him as a vital piece of their offense for the foreseeable future. Additionally, Ekeler is very reliant on having a significant role in the passing game. This provides a safety net for if he starts to take fewer carries as he gets older, ensuring that he will still hold value due to his ability to catch passes at a high level.

A full offseason for Ekeler to be schemed into an offense that took off under the watch of Herbert can lead to a lot more success like we saw at the end of last season. I fully expect Ekeler to be an RB1 in the 2021 season, with top-five upside as the primary back in a big-time offense. Given the ADPs of the halfbacks with the same upside, Ekeler is a steal.

Written by David Owen, Anand Chundi, and Brandon Mintz.