By The race to Turin for the ATP finals are heating up. The top 6 spots are locked up with Djokovic, Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rublev and Berretini all qualified. The next 2 at the moment are Nadal and Casper Ruud but with Nadal out for the year Hubert Hurkacz would move into the field. This is the most exclusive tournament with just the top 8 players in the world qualifying. The men have more opportunity to gain points than the women with one 1,000 level tournament left at the Paris indoors masters. There is also one 500 level event and then a couple of 250 level tournaments. There are really only 2 contenders to jump into the top 8 spots, unless Cam Norrie can win Indian wells.
The 2 main contenders for the ATP Finals are Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger Alliasime. With the Paris Masters where the most points are available that tournament will likely determine the final 2 spots. The surface is indoor hard courts which typically plays very fast. That plays to the advantage of Hurkacz, Felix, and Sinner while Ruud is typically better on clay or slower hard courts. It will likely take Felix or Sinner to make the finals at least of Paris to have a chance of getting in.
Before Paris there is the Erste Bank Open in Vienna. Because the margin is so small between the four players, this 500 level event could go along way in closing the gap should Felix or Sinner win it. The field is loaded with almost everyone outside of Djokovic and Medvedev playing. It’s another indoor hard court tournament so conditions are probably going to be similar to Paris. While the race to get in will be intruiging, all 4 of those players would be heavy underdogs once the top 8 get to Turin.
Out of the 4 players really contending to get in to the ATP Finals, Hurkacz would have the best chance of making a run. He has huge weapons and has played extremely well this year at big tournaments. He won Miami which really catapulted him up the rankings and then also knocked off Federer and Medvedev at wimbledon making the semifinals. His serve, forehand and good volleys make him tough for anyone to beat. He also will be playing on a good surface for him so out of the 4 he definitely has the best chance of making a run.
The end of year tournament is a super exclusive event and offers a huge amount of prize money for the winner. The winner could win up to almost 3 million dollars back in 2019. Essentially the same amount as a major. This motivates players as well as the points that are up for grabs. The winner gets 1500 points which is quite a large amount. Outside of the Majors this would have to be the biggest event based on exclusivity, prize money, and points available.
And Unlike the majors, this event has been won by the younger guys. Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev have won the last 3 editions of the event. And before that Grigor Dimitrov beat David Goffin in the finals. A result that almost no one would have guessed. The point is, this event hasn’t necessarily been won by the big 3 recently. Medvedev wasn’t necessarily an underdog last year but he wasn’t the favorite either. I think this trend will continue this year.
Matteo Berritini is going to be a player to watch. While his form has dropped since making the Wimbledon final, he is as capable as anyone of winning this event. His serve and forehand will keep him in almost every match and after watching Medvedev and Zverev absolutely collapse in losses at Indian Wells, you can’t be overly confident picking them.
You also can’t be overly comfortable picking Tsitsipas. He hasn’t looked good since making the final of Roland Garros and his backhand is so bad that the top players will be able to capitalize on that. Berretini could ride a perfect storm and shock everyone.
Djokovic is of course the one wildcard. Assuming he even plays, he will be the favorite. Djokovic has played so few tournaments this year and probably won’t play again until the ATP finals. The 2 out 3 set format and the indoor conditions won’t necessarily favor him. Also it feels as though the younger guys no longer fear him as they did last year and even earlier this year. Djokovic will be the storyline but I really don’t think he will win it. The young guys are coming. Everyone playing will be 25 years old and younger other than Djokovic. He is still the undisputed best player in the world but he seems to be saving himself for majors.
This could be an official changing of the guard with the big 3 finally being surpassed by the younger guys. I’m not saying Djokovic won’t win another major, but the young guys truly believe now. They think they are the top and will give Djookovic their best shot every time they play. Their best shot is now good enough, something that you couldn’t say before.
By 
By 
By 
