NASCAR Playoff Predictions as regular season winds down

There are 10 races remaining in the regular season and the playoff picture is starting to become clear.  There are plenty of drivers still in contention and plenty of time for each to start making their moves. However, only 16 drivers will get the chance to start racing for a championship when they take the green flag at Darlington Raceway on Sept. 5. 

Here are the 16 drivers who I believe have the best chance to clinch a playoff berth:

Tier 1: Championship Favorites

Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr. 

This part of the list is pretty self-explanatory. Yes, it’s true that Hamlin, despite being the points leader, has yet to officially lock himself into the postseason. With that being said, he has been by far the most consistent driver this season. He’s tied for the series lead in top fives and top tens. He also ranks second in laps led and stage wins. Even more incredible, he has yet to record a DNF this season. He is one of only three drivers who can say that. Despite being winless, Hamlin is firmly in the championship mix heading towards the playoffs. 

Next up is Kyle Larson, who many would say is the easy championship favorite at this point. He’s collected five straight top-two finishes and two straight wins. This has allowed him to close within 47 points of Hamlin in the race to be the regular season championship. He’s tied with Martin Truex Jr. for the series lead with three wins. He is also tied with Hamlin for most top fives with nine. In addition, Larson leads the series in laps led and stage wins. If Larson can continue this hot stretch, he could snatch the regular season title from Hamlin. In that case, he should be the runaway favorite to lift the trophy at Phoenix come November. 

Last among the championship threats stands Truex Jr. Truex Jr. took a step back in the right direction with a third-place finish at Sonoma in his last race. As previously mentioned, Truex Jr. is tied for the series lead with three wins. What helps his case the most when it comes to his championship hopes is that all three wins came at tracks that use the 750-HP, low downforce package. This is what is used at the finale in Phoenix. It also happens to be one of the three tracks he has won at so far this season. Like Hamlin and Larson, Truex Jr. is strictly in the mix to collect his second career championship. 

Tier 2: Already Locked In to Playoff

Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski 

Leading the second tier of projected playoff drivers are the remaining trio of Hendrick Motorsports drivers. Each of these drivers are having excellent seasons. Bowman is one of three drivers to collect multiple wins this season, with two on the year so far. Byron is having a breakout season as he sits fourth in points. He is also tied with Hamlin for the series lead with 12 top tens. Elliott sits third in points in points and is third in the series with eight top five finishes. All three figure to battle it out for the rest of the season to claim the fourth spot behind the Big Three. 

The trio of Team Penske drivers also reside in this group. Logano, Blaney, and Keselowski each have a win this season and all three sit in the top ten in points as the regular season winds down. Joey Logano has been the leader of the bunch, sitting fifth in points. While all three are comfortably in the playoff field right now, none quite look the part of championship threats. They are simply not on par Hendrick stable and the two Joe Gibbs Toyotas of Hamlin and Truex Jr. 

Speaking of Joe Gibbs Toyotas, the last member of this group is Kyle Busch, who has had a quiet season for his standards, despite the win at Kansas earlier this season. He sits seventh in the standings, which is respectable, but pair that with only 58 laps led in 16 races, and it seems that while another playoff appearance is in the cards, this may not be the season he gets his third championship. 

Tier 3: Already Locked In to Playoff- For Now

Christopher Bell, Michael McDowell 

These two drivers are in an interesting position, as McDowell started the season winning his first career race in the Daytona 500, with Bell following that up with his first career win at the Daytona Road Course. In addition to that, both drivers would currently be in the playoff field regardless of their wins, as Bell is 15^th in points and McDowell sits right behind him in 16^th. 

With that being said, both drivers are on opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to how they’ve lived up to their preseason expectations. For McDowell, he has smashed all expectations for what was expected of him coming into the season, as he has already racked up two top five finishes and five top tens in 16 races this season.  

Bell has matched those numbers, which is slightly disappointing for him in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. Despite that, he, along with McDowell, should both be making their first career playoff appearances assuming that there aren’t five or more new winners before the playoffs. 

Tier 4: Work to Do

Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick 

This part of list is an all-exclusive Richard Childress Racing section, as both of these drivers currently find themselves on the right side of the playoff bubble. Dillon is 12^th in points, 105 points above the cutoff line, while Reddick is right behind him in 13^th, 67 points ahead of Matt DiBenedetto as we hit the stretch run. 

These two drivers haven’t necessarily run up front a whole lot this season, but both have been very consistent, especially Reddick after a horrific start to the season. Therefore, it’s not a surprise to see why either driver is where they’re at, which at the moment, is somewhat secure, but not entirely safe either. 

Tier 5: Down but Not Out

Kurt Busch 

The only driver in my projected playoff field that wouldn’t currently be in the field if the playoffs started today, Busch currently sits 18^th in the standings, 63 points behind Chris Buescher for the final playoff spot. 

This has no doubt been a poor season for Busch, who has seemingly only had bad luck if he’s had any semblance of luck at all. With that being said, he is coming off of a sixth-place finish in which he also managed to lead some laps. This also marks the first race this whole season in which both Chip Ganassi Racing cars placed in the top ten, a good sign for the rest of the season.

However, the main reason for putting Busch in the field as opposed to Buescher and DiBenedetto is his playoff experience. While DiBenedetto made his playoff debut last season and Buescher made a playoff appearance back in 2016, Busch hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2012. And while 63 points seems like a pretty sizeable gap at the moment, if he can keep doing what he did at Sonoma, then he should be able to sneak in to the postseason for the ninth year in a row. 

So, there you have it. These are the 16 drivers who will make up the 2021 NASCAR Playoffs. If the season ended today, 15 of these drivers would be in the playoffs, while Kurt Busch would be the lone driver missing out. However, when Darlington rolls around, it will be Kurt Busch usurping Chris Buescher and taking the final spot in the field of 16.