Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes: Lessons from 2011.

I am not one to entertain frivolous debates about which generational quarterback is more generational. I believe that we ought to just enjoy the incredible play on the field and drop all other nonsense. However, the debate over the greatness of Aaron Rodgers versus Patrick Mahomes is one that I believe was too quickly decided in favor of Mahomes, and so I will begrudgingly throw my hat into the ring.

I am in no way saying that Patrick Mahomes is not one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game, all I am saying is that in terms of this particular debate, Mahomes was too quickly called the winner. We are seeing this in Mahomes “return-to-earth” tour this season–as the Chiefs currently sit at the bottom of the AFC West after starting the season 3-3.

This is in large part, due to the Chief’s defensive woes. The Chiefs currently rank near the bottom of the league in all major defensive categories. This has, in turn, put a large amount of pressure on the Chief’s offense to score enough points to keep pace with opponents.

The story was similar for the 2011 Green Bay Packers. The Packers ranked near the bottom of the league in most major defensive categories and had to rely on Aaron Rodgers and the Packer’s offense to go 15-1 in the regular season. This apparent disparity in success with similar situations is precisely the reason why I think the debate between Mahomes and Rodgers was called too quickly in favor of Mahomes.

Comparing the 2011 Packers to the 2021 Chiefs

In this section I’d like to take a look at the 2011 Packers as they compare to the Chiefs this season. To begin, we will discuss defensive comparisons, then we will take a look at how each offense faired (or has faired in the Chief’s case) with lackluster defensive performance, and finally we will delve into a comparison between the individual performances of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.

Comparing the Defenses

In figure one below I have created a table showing the Chief’s defensive stats thus far this season. As you can see, the Chiefs D ranks near the bottom of the league in most major categories.

With these numbers juxtaposed to the numbers from 2011 Packer’s defense below, the similarities between the two teams becomes clear.

The Chiefs of this year and the 2011 Packers had similar numbers in yards per game, yards per play, yards per pass, and yards per rush. It goes without saying that the Chief’s numbers are not yet set in stone, and a second half push for better overall defensive play is not out of the question. But given the current trends, we can conjecture that the Chief’s 2021 defense is similar to the Packer’s 2011 defense. We can also then conjecture that Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes were tasked with similar challenges during these seasons. What’s more, 2011 was Rodgers’ 3rd full season as the Packer’s starter and 2021 marks Patrick Mahomes’ 4th season as the Chief’s starter.

Again, the primary reason I’d like to compare these two seasons, is because this is the first season the Chiefs have faced mediocrity since the Patrick Mahomes era began. Furthermore, everyone wants to point to the Chief’s defense as the reason why the team is declining. This is a fair analysis; however, when the Packer’s were near the bottom of the league in most major defensive categories in 2011, they still ended the year with the best record in the NFL, going 15-1. And therefore, if greatness is determined in large part by one’s performance when chances of success are low, it stands to reason that Aaron Rodgers has thus far proven better than Patrick Mahomes.

In the following sections we will take a look at how the Packer’s and Chief’s offenses from these seasons compare and how Mahomes and Rodgers compare individually. Hopefully this will bolster my argument above.

Comparing the Offenses

In figure three below, I have the major offensive statistics listed for the 2021 Chiefs:

As you can see, the Chiefs are once again fielding a top offensive unit. That said, there is a glaring outlier in the bunch–the interception rate. Next, take a look at the Packer’s offensive stats from the 2011 season:

Like this season’s Chiefs, the 2011 Packers fielded a top ten offensive unit. More importantly, Aaron Rodgers’ interception rate was incredibly low despite apparent poor offensive line play that is evidenced by the high sack rate (7.01%–22nd in the league).

What these figures show, is that despite obvious similarities between the teams around Mahomes and Rodgers in these respective years, Rodgers was able to put together a more efficient season (at least thus far) with the chances of success (because of poor defensive play) remarkably low.

Aaron Rodgers vs Patrick Mahomes: Conclusions

I will say it again: both of these quarterbacks are generational talents and by writing this article I am in no way attempting to slander or denigrate the performance of either player. That said, this is the first season in Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as a starter that he has faced considerable adversity. Games will be hard-won this season as the sustained success of the offense will be the main deciding factor in light of poor defensive play. While it does make sense to compare Rodgers and Mahomes at their peak, I believe it is just as reasonable to compare the two when the success of their respective teams falls almost completely on their arms alone. This is what the 2011 Packer’s season and the current Chief’s season represent.

To this point, Rodgers has proven that he is the better quarterback. With a worse offensive line (7.01% sack rate) he was able to post the second best interception rate, and the best passer rating in the league in 2011. So far this season with a better offensive line (3.97% sack rate), Mahomes has posted the 27th worst interception rate and a passer rating that drops him outside of the the top ten. Time will tell whether Mahomes is able to rebound this year, but as things stand now, the 2011 season proves that Rodgers has the advantage in this debate.